RFA Breakfast Paper - September 24, 2026
Treasury Surge Hits African Eurobonds
African sovereign euro bonds sold off sharply on Thursday as the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield climbed to 5.12%, highest since 2007. Egypt’s 2033 issue fell 2.28% to 96.08, the steepest decline in the basket, while Ghana’s 2035 bond dropped 1.21%, South Africa’s 2036 issue lost 1.13% and Angola’s 2032 bond slipped 0.88%. Nigeria’s 2034 bond fell 1.01% to 116.80 despite positive tailwinds from the CBN’s 350-basis-point rate cut to 23% this week, reserves above $54 billion and FTSE Russell Frontier reclassification inflows. The sell-off was driven by stronger-than-expected U.S. data—initial claims fell to 197,000 and new home sales jumped 6.4%—which reinforced higher-for-longer expectations and pushed the 30-year yield to 5.45%, a level last seen in 2004. Brent crude’s 3.4% surge above $106 offered fiscal offset for oil producers but added inflation risk across the region.
Yields Near 2007 Highs, Stocks Mixed
The S&P 500 closed fractionally lower at 7,704 while the Nasdaq edged up 0.01% to 26,939, as surging Treasury yields offset resilient economic data. The 10-year yield climbed to 5.12% and the 30-year reached 5.45%—both at their highest since at least 2007—after initial claims fell to 197,000 and new home sales jumped 6.4%, reinforcing higher-for-longer expectations. Energy led sectors with Brent crude topping $106 on Houthi attacks against Saudi military sites, while technology shed over 1%. The Dow fell 0.3%, weighed by rate-sensitive industrials.
NGX Extends Record Run on Rate-Cut Rally
The NGX All-Share Index rose for an eleventh consecutive session, gaining 0.38% to a fresh record of 252,150.01 and lifting market capitalisation to ₦163.68 trillion. The rally broadened modestly—28 gainers against 24 losers—though turnover fell 38% to 978 million shares, suggesting institutional positioning over broad-based retail demand. NAHCO led large-cap gains at 8.6% while Wema Bank paced decliners at −3.9%. The banking index slipped 0.29% despite the sector remaining the primary beneficiary of the CBN’s 350bps rate cut to 23% announced on Tuesday. Investors continue to position for FTSE Russell Frontier index inflows expected through quarter-end.
