RFA Breakfast Paper - September 21, 2026
MPC Expected to Hold Rate at 26.5%
The Central Bank of Nigeria's Monetary Policy Committee concludes a two-day meeting today, and analyst consensus is for the benchmark rate to stay at 26.5%. The disinflation case has firmed: headline inflation slowed to 15.39% in August from 15.43% in July, a third straight monthly easing and the lowest reading since March, while core inflation fell to 13.29% and food inflation cooled to 19.57%. External reserves above $54 billion and a naira holding near ₦1,331/$, firmer than the ₦1,360s of mid-August, give the Committee room to wait. Yet the argument for patience is also about carry: with the US 10-year near 4.96% and the Federal Reserve still leaning hawkish, an early cut would compress the rate differential that has underpinned foreign inflows and exchange-rate stability. A hold preserves that spread while the MPC seeks clearer evidence that disinflation is durable rather than oil- and base-effect driven.
Tech Rally Lifts Nasdaq to Record Close
U.S. equities posted their best session since early August. The Nasdaq Composite jumped 2.26% to a record 27,122.09, the S&P 500 rose 1.49% to 7,764.70 and the Dow added 0.71%. Semiconductors led: AMD surged roughly 10%, briefly touching a $1 trillion valuation on accelerating AI-hardware demand and optimism around U.S.–China AI-safety talks, while Meta jumped more than 11% after its Muse AI agent topped the app store. Falling crude and a 4bp slip in the 10-year yield to 4.96% amplified the bid for long-duration technology.
FTSE Upgrade Powers NGX to Record High
The All-Share Index climbed 0.14% to a record 250,156.80, crossing 250,000 for the first time and lifting market capitalisation to ₦162.39 trillion; the year-to-date return now stands at 60.76%. The catalyst is FTSE Russell's reclassification returning Nigeria to its Frontier index this week, drawing foreign positioning into large-cap names, particularly tier-one banks, leaving the Banking index up 0.68% and the NGX 30 up 0.12% to 9,207.58. Breadth was firm at 39 advancers to 25 decliners, with SUNU Assurances, NASCON and Omatek each up 10%; Okomu Oil (-10%) and Custodian (-9.1%) led the fallers.
