RFA Breakfast Paper - July 27, 2026

Brent Holds Near $92 as Pause in US-Iran Strikes Eases Supply Fears

Brent crude futures briefly fell below $90 per barrel on Monday before recovering to trade around $92, as a pause in military exchanges between the United States and Iran raised hopes for renewed diplomatic progress. President Donald Trump was reportedly open to resuming peace negotiations, while the US quietly suspended its military strikes against Iran late Friday. In response, Tehran halted its retaliatory attacks and entered discussions with Oman regarding the reopening and security of the Strait of Hormuz. Despite the easing tensions, geopolitical risks remained elevated after Iran-backed Houthi forces in Yemen claimed responsibility for attacks on facilities linked to Saudi Aramco at the Red Sea ports of Jizan and Yanbu. The attacks underscore the widening regional security risks, even as direct US-Iran hostilities subside. Brent prices have surged nearly 40% this month, driven by supply disruptions affecting both the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea, an increasingly important alternative export route for Saudi crude. While the latest diplomatic efforts have provided some relief to markets, persistent threats to critical energy infrastructure and shipping lanes continue to underpin elevated oil prices and keep geopolitical risk firmly in focus.

U.S. Equities Finish Mixed As Geopolitics And Trade Policy Dominate Investor Focus

U.S. equities closed Friday mixed as investors weighed escalating geopolitical tensions against new developments in trade policy. Reports that Iran rejected a fresh U.S. ceasefire proposal, while U.S. military strikes on Iranian targets continued, kept geopolitical risks firmly in focus. The S&P 500 ended largely unchanged, while the Nasdaq fell 0.6% as technology stocks, particularly semiconductor names, came under pressure. Despite the lack of progress on the diplomatic front, oil prices eased during the session, with WTI crude slipping below $90 per barrel. Nevertheless, crude still gained approximately 9% over the week, highlighting the continued impact of geopolitical risks on energy markets. Trade policy added another layer of uncertainty as the U.S. administration introduced new global tariffs ranging from 10% to 12.5%, replacing the temporary 10% levies introduced in February. The policy shift reinforced concerns over potential inflationary pressures and the broader economic impact of higher trade barriers. Overall, the mixed market performance reflected a cautious investment environment, with investors balancing geopolitical uncertainty and renewed trade concerns against signs of resilience across economically sensitive areas of the market.

NGX Close The Week Lower As Profit-Taking Weighs On Large-Cap Stocks

The Nigerian equity market closed the week on a negative note, with both the NGX-ASI and Market Capitalization declining by 0.19% in today’s session. The NGX-ASI fell by 0.19% to close at 247,357.40, while Market Capitalization declined by ₦305.82 billion to ₦159.59 trillion. Despite gainers outnumbering decliners, renewed profit-taking in recently appreciated medium- and large-cap stocks weighed on overall market performance. Trading activity also weakened, as total volume and value traded declined by 21.45% and 41.47%, respectively. Investors exchanged approximately 614.55 million units valued at ₦32,950.87 million across 55,282 deals. Despite the bearish close, the market still delivered a strong weekly performance, with the NGX-ASI advancing 1.60% week-on-week and investors’ wealth increasing by approximately ₦2.5 trillion. The contrasting daily and weekly performances suggest that Friday’s decline reflected short-term profit-taking rather than a broad deterioration in market sentiment. Lower trading volume and value also pointed to reduced investor participation as the week ended, although the market’s overall gains indicate that underlying bullish momentum remained intact.