RFA Breakfast Paper - July 17, 2026

Brent Extends Rally as US-Iran Conflict Intensifies

Brent crude futures climbed above $90 per barrel on Monday, extending last week's gains as escalating hostilities between the United States and Iran heightened concerns over further disruptions to Middle Eastern oil supplies. Iran declared that its ceasefire with the US had effectively collapsed and said it intercepted four vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz over the weekend, while the US military reported the death of a third service member in the past two days amid the continuing exchanges of attacks. The conflict has broadened beyond military targets, with critical infrastructure—including bridges, utilities, and port facilities—also coming under attack. Kuwait Petroleum Corporation reported that one of its oil facilities was struck by an Iranian attack on Saturday, further underscoring the risks to regional energy infrastructure. Brent prices have now risen roughly 30% from their July lows, driven by the collapse of the interim US-Iran peace agreement, the resumption of the US blockade on Iranian ports, and intensified Iranian attacks on commercial shipping near the Strait of Hormuz. The renewed geopolitical tensions have significantly increased the risk of prolonged supply disruptions, keeping oil markets highly sensitive to developments in the region.

Global Equities Retreat as AI Concerns and Middle East Tensions Weigh on Sentiment

Global equity markets traded lower on Friday as a semiconductor-led selloff that began in Asia spread to the U.S. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index ended the week down 10%, while South Korea's equity market has fallen 25% from its June peak and Taiwanese stocks have entered correction territory. European equities proved more resilient, supported by their relatively lower exposure to technology stocks. Renewed escalation in the Middle East also weighed on sentiment, pushing WTI crude oil prices 4% higher to around $81 per barrel. Energy was the only sector to finish higher, while technology and communication services led declines. In fixed income, demand for safe-haven assets helped push the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield down to 4.56%.

NGX Rebounds as Banking Stocks Drive Market Higher

The Nigerian equity market closed the week on a positive note, with the NGX All-Share Index (NGX-ASI) and Market Capitalization both advancing by 0.54%. The rebound was driven by renewed buying interest and bargain hunting in banking and other blue-chip stocks, with FIRSTHOLDCO, UBA, ZENITHBANK, ACCESSCORP, and GTCO among the key gainers. Consequently, the benchmark index rose by 1,316.52 points to close at 243,462.13, while Market Capitalization increased by ₦849.28 billion to ₦157.06 trillion. Despite Friday’s rally, the NGX-ASI declined 0.14% on a week-on-week basis, although investors’ wealth still increased by approximately ₦611.72 billion. Market breadth remained positive with 33 gainers against 18 losers. Sectoral performance was mixed, with the Banking sector leading gains at 3.13%, followed by Insurance (+1.08%) and Consumer Goods (+0.21%), while the Oil & Gas and Industrial Goods sectors closed marginally lower.