RFA Breakfast Paper - March 27, 2026

Brent Surges Above $115 as Iran War Escalates and Supply Routes Disrupt

Brent crude jumped over 3% to above $115 per barrel, its highest level since July 2022, as the war involving Iran entered its fifth week with no clear resolution in sight. Escalation intensified after Iran-backed Houthis joined the conflict, launching missiles at Israel and threatening continued attacks, including potential disruptions to shipping in the Red Sea and key Saudi energy infrastructure.

At the same time, the United States military has deployed additional troops and is reportedly preparing for extended ground operations, signaling a prolonged conflict. Oil prices have now surged over 50% since the crisis began, driven largely by the effective shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical passage that handles roughly 20% of global energy flows, significantly tightening global supply.

U.S. Stocks Fall as Oil Surge and Geopolitical Tensions Pressure Markets

U.S. equities declined notably, led by tech, as rising oil prices and renewed Middle East tensions weakened sentiment. The Nasdaq Composite dropped about 2.4%, while the S&P 500 fell 1.7% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 1.0%. Concerns over supply disruptions and persistent inflation grew as ceasefire signals remained unclear. Treasury yields also rose, with the 10-year yield reaching 4.43%, reflecting expectations of prolonged policy caution. Global markets mirrored the risk-off tone, with Europe closing lower and Asia mixed.

Despite the decline, the broader outlook remains relatively stable. The current oil-driven shock is likely to slow growth and raise inflation but not trigger a severe downturn, given stronger fundamentals and lower oil dependence. While volatility may persist in the near term, stabilizing energy prices could support market recovery over time.

Nigerian Equities Record Modest Gains Amid Declining Market Activity

The Nigerian equity market ended the session on a modest positive note, with both the NGX All-Share Index and Market Capitalization advancing by 0.11%. Investors maintained selective interest in medium and large-cap stocks, particularly MTNN and GTCO, which supported the market’s gradual climb. The index gained 219.87 points to close at 200,925.75, while market capitalization increased by ₦141.14 billion to ₦128.98 trillion. Despite this upward movement, trading activity slowed significantly, as both volume and value traded declined by more than 55%. WEMABANK led in trading volume, while MTNN dominated in value traded.

Performance across the market remained mixed but slightly positive overall. LEGENDINT topped the gainers’ chart, while FIDSON led the losers. Market breadth closed marginally positive, with 32 gainers against 30 losers. Sectoral performance also reflected this mixed sentiment, as gains in Insurance, Consumer Goods, and Oil & Gas were offset by declines in Banking and Industrial Goods, highlighting cautious investor positioning.