RFA Breakfast Paper - March 25, 2026

Nigeria Capital Inflows Rise to $ 6 .44 bn, Driven by Portfolio Investments

Nigeria recorded $6.44 billion in capital importation in Q4 2025, up 26.6% year-on-year and 7.1% quarter-on-quarter, signaling continued recovery in foreign inflows. Data from the National Bureau of Statistics shows the surge was overwhelmingly driven by portfolio investments ($5.49bn, 85.1%), with strong demand for money market instruments ($3.08bn) and bonds ($1.97bn). In contrast, FDI remained weak at $357.8m (5.6%), highlighting limited long-term investment appetite, while other investments contributed $599.7m (9.3%).

Sectorally, the banking sector dominated inflows (59.8%), followed by financing (30.2%), with minimal allocation to the real sector—reinforcing investor preference for liquid financial assets. By origin, the UK led with 57.9%, followed by the US (13.0%) and South Africa (8.0%), underscoring reliance on traditional financial hubs. Overall, the data points to improving investor confidence, but the skew toward short-term flows highlights the ongoing challenge of translating inflows into productive, growth-enhancing investment.

U .S . Stocks Rise on Ceasefire Proposal and De-escalation Hopes

U.S. equity markets closed higher on Wednesday after reports that the U.S. proposed a ceasefire plan to Iran. The S&P 500 gained 0.5%, while the Russell 2000 rose nearly 1%. Gains were broad, with most sectors advancing except energy and real estate, while consumer discretionary and materials led. Global markets also rallied, while Treasury yields declined and oil prices fell about 1.3% on easing supply concerns.

However, uncertainty remains as Iran denied ongoing negotiations, keeping sentiment cautious. Markets continue to respond to de-escalation hopes, though volatility may persist. A key signal of progress would be the recovery of oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz. Meanwhile, PMI data showed U.S. activity slowed but remained in expansion, indicating resilience.

Market leadership has also broadened in 2026, with energy and industrials outperforming while technology lags. Despite this, strong earnings expectations support a balanced and diversified investment approach.

Nigerian Stocks Edge Higher on Selective Buying

The Nigerian equity market closed slightly higher, with the NGX All-Share Index and

Market Capitalization both advancing by 0.11%. Investors sustained buying interest in select medium- and large-cap stocks, particularly MTNN and GTCO, supporting gains across key sectors. The All-Share Index rose by 219.87 points to close at 200,925.75, while market capitalization increased by ₦141.14 billion to ₦128.98 trillion. However, trading activity weakened significantly, as total volume and value traded declined by over 55%.

Investors exchanged about 538 million shares worth ₦25.39 billion across 45,641 deals. WEMABANK led trading volume, while MTNN dominated value traded, reflecting concentrated interest in select names.

Market performance showed a mixed but slightly positive tone. LEGENDINT led the gainers with a 10.00% increase, followed by several other advancing stocks, while 30 equities recorded losses, led by FIDSON. Despite this, market breadth remained marginally positive with 32 gainers against 30 losers. Sector performance was also mixed, with gains in Insurance, Consumer Goods, and Oil & Gas sectors, while Banking and Industrial Goods sectors declined. Overall, the session reflected cautious optimism, with selective buying offset by reduced trading activity and pockets of weakness.