RFA Breakfast Paper - March 23, 2026

Brent Rebounds Above $ 102 as Iran Conflict Keeps Supply Risks Elevated

Brent crude futures climbed above $102 per barrel, recovering from the prior session’s sharp selloff as Iran rejected claims by Donald Trump of ongoing talks, denying any negotiations to end the conflict. Tehran dismissed the remarks as market influence and launched fresh attacks on US targets, while Israel continued strikes, keeping geopolitical tensions elevated. The rebound follows a more than 10% drop on Monday, triggered after Trump delayed planned strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure by five days and signaled progress in negotiations, a move seen as an attempt to stabilize prices. Despite the volatility, markets remain on edge as the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively shut,disrupting a corridor that handles ~20% of global oil flows and forcing Middle Eastern producers to cut output, sustaining a strong risk premium in crude prices.

Markets Rally on De-escalation Hopes as Oil Prices Fall

U.S. equities moved higher on Monday as easing geopolitical tensions boosted investor confidence. The S&P 500 gained over 1% after President Donald Trump announced a five-day pause on planned strikes against Iranian energy infrastructure, following constructive weekend discussions with Iran. Gains were broad, with all eleven sectors closing higher, led by technology and consumer discretionary stocks. European markets followed suit, as the Euro Stoxx 50 Index rose more than 1%. Meanwhile, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield edged lower to 4.35%, and the U.S. dollar weakened against major currencies. In commodities, oil prices dropped sharply by about 10%, falling below $90 per barrel as supply concerns eased. Global markets reacted positively to signs of de-escalation, though uncertainty remains. Earlier tensions had risen after threats to target Iranian infrastructure if the Strait of Hormuz stayed closed. However, the decision to delay action signaled a softer stance and supported risk assets. Investors now watch closely for a recovery in oil flows through the Strait, which handles roughly 25% of global seaborne oil trade. While volatility may persist amid shifting headlines, the broader economic backdrop continues to support opportunities across U.S., developed, and emerging equity markets.

Profit-Taking Pressure Drags NGN Market Lower Despite Broad Buying Interest

The Nigerian equity market opened the week on a negative note, with the NGX All-Share Index and Market Capitalization both declining by 1.07%. Profit-taking in key large-cap stocks such as MTNN, ZENITHBANK, and GTCO weighed on performance. The index fell by 2,142.83 points to 199,014.02, while market capitalization dropped by ₦1.38 trillion to ₦127.75 trillion. Trading activity slowed, with volume and value down sharply. UBA led traded volume, while MTNN topped value traded. Despite the decline, market breadth remained positive, with 43 gainers against 22 losers. PRESCO led the gainers, while CONHALLPLC topped the losers. Sector performance was broadly weak, as Banking, Consumer Goods, and Insurance sectors declined, while Oil & Gas and Industrial Goods posted slight gains, offering limited support to the market.