RFA Breakfast Paper - March 17, 2026
Ghana GDP Growth Accelerates to 5.8% in Q4
The economy of Ghana expanded by 5.8% year-on-year in Q4 2025, up from 5.5% in Q3, driven mainly by strong non-oil activity, which grew 7.1%. The services sector (8.6%) remained the primary growth engine, contributing over half of GDP expansion, with key support from information and communication, transport and storage, education, and financial services. Agriculture also strengthened, rising 5.3%, supported by higher crop output, including a 3% increase in cocoa production. In contrast, the industrial sector grew just 1.9%, as gains in manufacturing and electricity were offset by a sharp decline in oil and gas output. For the full year, Ghana's economy expanded by 6% in 2025, the fastest pace since 2019, following an upwardly revised 5.8% growth in 2024.
Markets Edge Higher Despite Rising Oil and Ongoing Geopolitical Risks
Equity and bond markets moved modestly higher, extending the improvement in sentiment seen in the prior session, even as oil prices continued to climb. WTI crude settled around $96 per barrel, supported by reports of fresh attacks on energy infrastructure in the Middle East, despite optimistic remarks from President Donald Trump suggesting that the conflict involving Iran was progressing toward a quicker resolution.
The S&P 500 gained 0.3%, while the Russell 2000 outperformed with a 0.7% advance, reflecting improved risk appetite. In fixed income markets, the more constructive tone helped drive yields lower, with the 10-year U.S. Treasury note declining by 2 basis points on the day and approximately 10 basis points over the course of the week. Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar softened, retracing some of its recent safe-haven gains, and is now down about 0.75% from its peak against a basket of trade-weighted currencies.
NGX Extends Rally as Banking and Industrial Stocks Drive Gains
The Nigerian equity market opened the week on a strong note, as key performance indicators, the NGX All-Share Index (ASI) and Market Capitalization, both advanced by 1.55%. The rally was driven by renewed bargain hunting in fundamentally sound blue-chip stocks, including BUACEMENT, ZENITHBANK, MTNN, WAPCO, and DANGCEM, following further moderation in inflation to 15.06%. Sectoral performance was led by the Industrial Goods and Banking sectors, which gained 4.52% and 2.20% respectively. Consequently, the ASI rose by 3,067.59 basis points to close at 201,474.89, while Market Capitalization increased by N1.97 trillion to settle at N129.33 trillion.
