RFA Breakfast Paper - March 16, 2026

Nigeria Inflation Eases to 15 .06%, but Food Pressures Rebound

Annual inflation in Nigeria edged down to 15.06% in February 2026 from 15.10% in January, marking the lowest level since November 2020 and extending the disinflation trend to 11 consecutive months. However, the pace of easing has slowed in recent months following a modest rate cut by the Central Bank of Nigeria, which expects inflation to continue moderating. Notably, food inflation rebounded to 12.12% from 8.89%, highlighting persistent underlying price pressures despite the broader slowdown. The National Bureau of Statistics also recently updated its inflation methodology, shifting to a 12-month reference period, which may influence how price trends are interpreted going forward.

U.S. Markets Rebound as Oil Prices Ease and Manufacturing Data Improves

Markets began the week on a stronger footing, supported by a decline in oil prices, with WTI crude falling to around $94 per barrel. The pullback reflected improving expectations that more tankers will be able to navigate the Strait of Hormuz, alongside reports that the U.S. is allowing Iran to continue shipping crude through the channel. Against this backdrop, the S&P 500 rose 1%, trimming its year-to-date decline to just over 2%. Lower oil prices also provided relief to fixed income markets, where a broad rally pushed U.S. Treasury yields 4–5 basis points lower across the curve. On the macro front, manufacturing activity continued to show resilience, with output rising 0.2% month-over-month in February, building on an upwardly revised 0.8% increase in January. Survey data also reinforced this trend, as the ISM Manufacturing PMI pointed to a return to expansion in a sector that had previously been weighed down by trade policy uncertainty.

NGX Opens Week Strong as Cooling Inflation Spurs Broad - Based Buying

The Nigerian equity market opened the week on a strong note, as key performance indicators—the NGX All-Share Index (ASI) and Market Capitalization—both advanced by 1.55%. The rally was driven by renewed bargain hunting in fundamentally sound blue-chip stocks, including BUACEMENT, ZENITHBANK, MTNN, WAPCO, and DANGCEM, following further moderation in inflation to 15.06%. Sectoral performance was led by the Industrial Goods and Banking sectors, which gained 4.52% and 2.20% respectively. Consequently, the ASI rose by 3,067.59 basis points to close at 201,474.89, while Market Capitalization increased by ₦1.97 trillion to settle at ₦129.33 trillion.