RFA Breakfast Paper - June 15, 2026
Nigeria Inflation Rises to 15.93% as Food and Transport Costs Remain Elevated
Annual inflation in Nigeria accelerated for a third consecutive month to 15.93% in May 2026, up from 15.69% in April, reaching its highest level since November 2025. The increase was driven primarily by food inflation, which rose for a fourth straight month to 17.8% from 16.6%, reinforcing its position as the largest contributor to overall price pressures. Transport inflation also increased to 17.1% from 16.0%, reflecting the continued pass-through of higher fuel costs following the March energy price shock linked to the Middle East conflict. Underlying inflationary pressures also strengthened. Core inflation, which excludes volatile agricultural produce and energy prices, accelerated to 16.82% from 15.86%, suggesting that price increases are becoming more broad-based across the economy. On a monthly basis, consumer prices rose 1.75% in May, slower than the 2.13% increase recorded in April. While the pace of monthly inflation eased, the continued rise in both headline and core inflation indicates that inflationary pressures remain persistent, driven by higher food prices, transportation costs, and lingering effects of earlier fuel price increases.
U.S. Equities Markets Advance as Middle East De-escalation Eases Investor Concerns
U.S. equities started the week higher as investors welcomed news of a breakthrough agreement between the United States and Iran aimed at ending recent hostilities and reopening the Strait of Hormuz. The two countries agreed to a 60-day framework over the weekend, with a formal signing expected on June 19 in Switzerland. The easing of geopolitical tensions triggered a broad risk-on rally across financial markets, supporting both equities and bonds. Oil prices fell sharply by about 4%, briefly dipping below $80 per barrel for the first time since March, as concerns over supply disruptions eased. Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar also moved lower, while precious metals gained support from the weaker greenback. Investor sentiment improved as lower energy prices helped ease inflation concerns and reduced fears that geopolitical tensions could disrupt economic activity. Growth-oriented sectors led the advance, with technology stocks and small-caps outperforming, while energy shares retreated alongside crude prices. The decline in Treasury yields further supported equity valuations, particularly within the technology sector, as investors rotated back into risk assets.
NGX Starts the Week Lower as Investor Caution Weighs on Key Sectors
The Nigerian equity market opened the week on a negative note, with the benchmark NGX All-Share Index and market capitalization both declining by 0.54%. Investor sentiment remained cautious amid lingering security concerns and uncertainty surrounding the upcoming elections, prompting continued selling pressure across medium and large-cap stocks. Losses were most pronounced in the Oil & Gas and Banking sectors, which weighed heavily on overall market performance. Consequently, the NGX All-Share Index fell by 1,316.40 points to close at 243,422.34, while market capitalization declined by ₦844.31 billion to settle at ₦156.13 trillion. Market participation also weakened significantly as investors adopted a more cautious stance. Total trading volume declined by 66.93% to 569.07 million units, while the value of transactions fell by 40.47% to ₦31.44 billion across 77,652 deals. The broad decline in both market performance and trading activity suggests that investors remain focused on near-term political and security developments, with risk appetite likely to remain subdued until greater clarity emerges.
