RFA Breakfast Paper - July 16, 2026

Brent Heads for Weekly Gain as US-Iran Escalation Threatens Oil Supply Routes

Brent crude futures traded above $84 per barrel on Friday and were on track to gain more than 10% for the week, as escalating military exchanges between the United States and Iran heightened concerns over disruptions to global energy supplies. Washington launched multiple strikes against Iran during the week, reportedly targeting an oil tanker near the country's main export terminal for the first time since reimposing a blockade on Iranian ports. President Donald Trump also warned that the US could target Iran's critical infrastructure if diplomatic efforts fail to produce a breakthrough. Meanwhile, Tehran reportedly instructed Yemen's Houthi movement to close the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, a key shipping route for Saudi oil exports through the Red Sea, should Iranian power infrastructure come under attack. At the same time, commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has declined sharply following the latest escalation, although some vessels continue to transit the waterway. The renewed geopolitical tensions have reinforced fears of supply disruptions across two of the world's most strategically important maritime chokepoints, providing strong support for crude oil prices despite broader concerns over global demand.

U.S. Equities Ease as Investors Rotate Beyond Technology

U.S. equities closed modestly lower on Thursday, with the Nasdaq underperforming the S&P 500 and Dow Jones as weakness in technology stocks weighed on sentiment. Globally, South Korea's Kospi fell more than 6%, pressured by a sharp sell-off in semiconductor shares. Meanwhile, oil prices retreated, although WTI crude remained elevated at $79 compared with recent lows near $68, while the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield edged higher to 4.56%, reflecting persistent caution around inflation and interest rates. Despite the softer market close, the underlying trend continues to point toward sector rotation rather than broad-based risk aversion. Investors have taken profits in parts of the technology sector following strong gains, while capital has gradually shifted into other areas of the market. With the U.S. economy remaining resilient, market leadership appears to be broadening beyond a handful of large technology stocks, creating opportunities across both cyclical sectors and select growth names. This rotation suggests investors remain constructive on the overall market even as leadership continues to evolve.

NGX Equities Slip as Profit-Taking Offsets Stronger Trading Activity

The Nigerian equity market ended Thursday in negative territory as investors locked in profits across selected mid-cap and blue-chip stocks, particularly within the industrial goods sector. The NGX All-Share Index (NGX-ASI) declined by 0.09%, shedding 221.14 basis points to close at 242,145.61, while market capitalization edged 0.02% lower to ₦156.21 trillion, a loss of ₦32.16 billion. The slight divergence between the index and market capitalization reflected the additional listing of 13.81 billion ordinary shares by Sterling Financial Holdings following its recent offer for subscription. Despite the weaker close, trading activity remained robust, highlighting sustained investor participation. Market turnover strengthened during the session, with total trading volume rising 4.64% and transaction value increasing 17.71% from the previous day. Investors exchanged approximately 498.45 million shares worth ₦34.87 billion across 39,484 deals, suggesting that while profit-taking weighed on prices, buying interest remained healthy. The combination of stronger trading activity and modest index losses indicates that investors continue to reposition portfolios rather than exit the market entirely, with fresh capital likely rotating into selective opportunities following recent gains.