RFA Breakfast Paper - April 1, 2026

South Africa’s Trade Surplus Widens Sharply to ZAR 36.9bn

South Africa recorded a trade surplus of ZAR 36.9 billion in February 2026, up significantly from a revised ZAR 8.5 billion in January, as stronger exports and weaker imports boosted the balance. Exports rose 8.2% month-on-month to ZAR 168.1 billion, driven by vehicles & transport equipment (+55%), machinery & electronics (+22%), and base metals (+16%), with notable gains to Oceania (+53.4%), the Americas (+33.1%), and Africa (+17.5%). Meanwhile, imports fell 10.7% to a four-year low of ZAR 131.2 billion, reflecting broad-based declines across key categories, including machinery & electronics (-14%), base metals (-18%), and chemical products (-10%). The drop in imports was led by reduced purchases from the Americas (-22.5%), Europe (-18.5%), and Oceania (-17.3%), reinforcing the strong external position.

U.S. Markets Surge on De-escalation Signals from Iran Conflict

U.S. equity markets closed higher on Tuesday, driven by reports that President Trump signaled willingness to end military operations in Iran, boosting hopes of de-escalation. Gains were broad-based, led by strong rallies in technology and communication services. The Nasdaq Composite surged 3.8%, while the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 2.9% and 2.5%, respectively. Bond yields edged lower, with the 10-year Treasury yield at 4.32% and the 2-year at 3.79%.

Despite improved sentiment, oil prices remained elevated above $100 per barrel, reflecting lingering uncertainty around the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. While optimism around a potential resolution supported equities, energy markets continue to signal caution as geopolitical risks persist.

Nigerian Equities Start Week Lower on Profit-Taking Pressure

The Nigerian equity market started the week on a negative note, with the NGX All-Share Index and Market Capitalization both declining by 0.21%. Profit-taking in key names such as WAPCO, ZENITHBANK, and GTCO pressured performance across major sectors. The index fell by 428.63 points to close at 200,484.43, while market capitalization declined by ₦270.84 billion to ₦128.70 trillion. Trading activity was mixed, with volume slightly lower but value traded rising, indicating selective participation.

Market breadth closed negative, with 34 losers outweighing 26 gainers. AUSTINLAZ led the gainers, while NSLTECH topped the losers’ chart. Sector performance was largely weak, as declines in Insurance, Banking, Industrial Goods, and Consumer Goods overshadowed the marginal gain in Oil & Gas, reflecting cautious investor sentiment.